The Hockey Stick

Scott Church
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Chap. 2.3 - Is the Recent Warming Unusual?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001
This is the chapter on historical climate change and paleoclimate from the IPCC Working Group I’s year 2001 Third Annual Report (TAR) on the state of climate change knowledge. This is the best summary in print of the scientific knowledge base on global warming as of its publication. Nearly all of it is still current. The document is available in HTML or PDF format.
Temperature Variations in Past Centuries and the so-called "Hockey Stick"
This page from RealClimate gives a brief but excellent summary of the science behind the hockey stick, with citations to a few of the most important papers on the subject. RealClimate ( was created by several leading climate scientists, all well published contributors in their fields in their fields as an antidote to the many ideologically driven global warming “information” sites and blogs that have flooded the Internet in recent years, nearly all of which are created and funded by industry and other special interests.
Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years
National Research Council, 2006
When 3 papers by industry-funded consultants managed to get published despite obvious methodological flaws several Far-Right members of Congress (most notably Republicans Joe Barton and James Inhofe) tried to launch an investigation of Mann and his colleagues in an attempt to bolster the credibility of the industry-funded work (the journal Climate Research which had published two of them was discovered to have problems with its peer-review process and several of its editors resigned in protest). The National Research Council (NRC) arm of the National Academy of Sciences was commissioned to do an in-depth review the hockey stick research. This is their final report. Not surprisingly, the NRC concluded that the science behind the hockey stick was solid and that there were obvious flaws in the industry-funded work—in full support of mainstream climate scientists. They did however have some criticisms regarding the manner in which some of the evidence had been handled along the way by all parties.
Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations
Mann et al. 1999. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, pp. 759-762
This is the seminal work (published in two journals) that put the hockey stick “on the map”. Mann’s team used the full instrumental surface temperature record back over a century in combination and historical data from various temperature proxies (most notably tree-rings, ice cores, and corals) and showed that the Northern Hemisphere warming observed during the latter half of the 20th century is without precedent at least as far back as 1400 AD.
The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium
Jones et al. 2001. Science, 292. (5517), pp. 662 – 667. DOI: 10.1126/science.1059126
Two more works by Mann and various other team members that expand upon and discuss the original hockey stick research.


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